Trends
Who is shipping, how fast, and how much more AI can do each year: from release pace to the length of task an agent finishes on its own.
Every major releaseone lane per lab
A release is the first public announcement or availability. Point updates and minor snapshots are left out. Filled dots are closed models, rings are open weights.
Releases per quarterclosed and open
Longest task an agent finishes on its ownMETR 50% time horizon · log scale
METR times tasks on skilled people, then measures which ones an agent completes half the time. Beyond 16 hours its current tasks can no longer measure reliably, so the top reads "16 h or more".
Tests built to last years fall in months30 tests · record score over time
Each strip darkens as the best score climbs; solid ink means the field has outgrown the test. Open any row for its record history. Outgrown: the record has passed 90%. Replaced: a newer version exists. Gone quiet: no new record in a year.
Capability firsts59 moments a new ability appeared
AI-found target and AI-made molecule reach Phase III
Insilico announced the first patient dosed in a 52-week Phase III trial of rentosertib for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. It describes the drug as the first candidate with both an AI-identified target and an AI-generated molecule to reach Phase III, after positive Phase IIa results in Nature Medicine in 2025.